Winter Outlook 25-26
Posted by Christopher Weiland on
2025-26 Winter Outlook
Your Guide to This Season's Snow Potential
The leaves are turning, temps are dropping, and we're all itching to fire up the sleds! You know what that means - it's time for our annual winter outlook!
Every year we dig into multiple forecasting sources to get a read on what Mother Nature has in store for the snowmobiling heartland. This year we're working with five solid sources: NOAA, Severe Weather Europe, Accuweather, The Weather Network, and Powderchasers.
Quick reminder - this is just for fun and planning purposes. We've seen great seasons when forecasts looked grim and vice versa. Don't base any major decisions solely on seasonal outlooks!
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Here's what's driving this winter: La Niña is back, but it's expected to be a weak one. What does that mean for us? Typically La Niña pushes the jet stream north, steering storms through the northern U.S. and Canada - right through our prime riding territory. The catch? A weak La Niña means the pattern won't be as locked in, so we could see more variability than usual.
The wild card this year is what's happening way up in the stratosphere. We've got a negative QBO (that's the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation for the weather nerds) combined with early Siberian snow cover, and both of these increase the odds of a disrupted Polar Vortex. Translation? We could see some serious arctic blasts dive south, especially in the second half of winter. When that happens, watch out - we're talking major storm potential!
The Sources
NOAA - The official government forecast calls for wetter conditions across the northern tier and Great Lakes. Temperature-wise, they're leaning cooler for the Northern Plains but actually warmer for the Northeast. Their confidence is modest though, given the weak La Niña signal.
Severe Weather Europe - These folks looked at past winters with similar conditions (weak La Niña + negative QBO) and came up with a different story. They're calling for colder and snowier than normal for both the Midwest and Northeast, banking on that Polar Vortex disruption to deliver the goods.
Accuweather - They're on board with the "intense and stormy winter" camp, forecasting colder temps and above-normal storms for the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. They see frequent arctic air intrusions as the key player.
The Weather Network - Our friends to the north are calling for near to colder than normal temps across southern Canada with the main storm track running right through the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley. They've got an interesting twist though - really warm water in the North Pacific could either juice up storms with extra moisture or mess with the whole pattern.
Powderchasers - Getting into the nitty-gritty, they're forecasting near to above-normal snow for the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes with medium confidence. For the Northeast, they're saying near-normal overall but with a "boom-bust" pattern - meaning we could see frustrating mild stretches broken up by absolute monster storms.
Now let's break it down region by region!
NORTH/SOUTH DAKOTA
Accuweather: They're forecasting colder temps and above-normal storm activity for both states, with frequent arctic air expected to make appearances throughout winter.
Severe Weather Europe: Calling for colder and snowier conditions across the Dakotas, driven by the La Niña pattern and potential Polar Vortex disruptions.
NOAA: Their forecast has the strongest confidence here - they're leaning toward below-average temps with higher odds for North Dakota. Precipitation looks to be near to above average, especially in the northern sections.
Powderchasers: Expects the Dakotas to benefit from the northern storm track with consistent snowfall chances throughout the season.
Bottom line: This is looking like a solid winter for the Dakotas with most sources in agreement. The northern storm track should keep the snow flying!
MINNESOTA
Accuweather: Forecasting an intense winter with colder than average temps and frequent storm systems tracking through the state.
Severe Weather Europe: Predicting colder and snowier conditions, particularly if the Polar Vortex weakens as expected.
NOAA: The northern two-thirds of the state has a 40-50% chance of below-average temps. Precipitation outlook shows equal chances of above or below average across the whole state.
The Weather Network: Minnesota sits right in the heart of their predicted "storm highway" through the Great Lakes region.
Powderchasers: Giving medium to high confidence for above-normal snowfall, especially in the northern half. They're particularly bullish on the lake-effect potential.
Bottom line: Strong agreement across the board - Minnesota is positioned well for an active season!
WISCONSIN/NORTHERN IL
Accuweather: Calling for an intense and stormy winter with colder than average temperatures and above-normal snow.
Severe Weather Europe: Forecasts colder and snowier conditions for Wisconsin, with Northern Illinois sharing the same outlook.
NOAA: Wisconsin gets a lean toward below-average temps and a stronger lean toward above-average precipitation. The lake-effect zones show even higher odds.
The Weather Network: The storm track they're predicting runs right through Wisconsin - prime positioning for frequent systems.
Powderchasers: High confidence for above-normal snow in Wisconsin, particularly in the traditional snowbelts. They see excellent lake-effect potential for the early season.
Bottom line: This is one of the highest confidence regions. Multiple sources agree - Wisconsin should see an excellent winter, and the lake-effect machine could fire up big time early in the season!
UPPER PENINSULA MI
Accuweather: Forecasting colder and stormier than average with significant snow potential throughout the winter.
Severe Weather Europe: Calling for below-average temps and above-average snowfall. Looking good!
NOAA: Shows a lean toward below-average temps and higher odds of above-average precipitation, with the eastern UP getting the strongest signal.
The Weather Network: Right in the heart of the active storm track with excellent positioning for nor'easters and lake-effect snow.
Powderchasers: This is one of their highest confidence regions for above-normal snow. They're especially excited about the lake-effect potential if we get early cold shots before the lakes freeze.
Bottom line: The UP is looking fantastic across the board! This could be a banner year if that early-season lake-effect setup materializes.
LOWER MI
Accuweather: Predicting colder and stormier winter with above-normal snow likely in the northern half.
Severe Weather Europe: Western Lower Michigan gets the colder and snowier forecast. Eastern portions may see more temperature variability but still good snow potential.
NOAA: Equal chances on temperature, but higher odds of above-average precipitation for the whole lower peninsula.
Powderchasers: Near to above-normal snow for the northern half with medium confidence. The boom-bust pattern could affect this region.
Bottom line: Northern Lower Michigan looks solid, though not quite as locked-in as the UP. Southern areas more uncertain.
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA
Accuweather: Calling for an intense and stormy winter with colder temps. They specifically mention early-season nor'easter potential for Pennsylvania.
Severe Weather Europe: Forecasting colder and snowier conditions for both states, banking on Polar Vortex disruptions to deliver.
NOAA: Here's where it gets interesting - they're leaning toward above-average temps for the region overall, but higher odds of above-average precipitation. The lake-effect belts show the strongest snow signal.
Powderchasers: Near-normal snow overall but with that boom-bust distribution. They expect the season to be defined by major storms rather than consistent snowfall.
Bottom line: This is the region with the most disagreement. The Polar Vortex behavior will be key - if it disrupts as some forecasters expect, we could see legendary nor'easters. If not, it could be a milder winter punctuated by occasional big storms. Either way, the storm potential is there when conditions align. PA looks particularly well-positioned for big events.
VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE/MAINE
Accuweather: Forecasting colder and stormier than average, though warming up a bit in late winter.
Severe Weather Europe: Calling for colder and snowier conditions, especially if we see Polar Vortex disruptions.
NOAA: Southern portions lean toward above-average temps, northern halves show equal chances. Precipitation leans above-average in the northern areas.
The Weather Network: Storm track positioning looks favorable, particularly for major coastal storms.
Powderchasers: Near-normal snow with the same boom-bust caveat as New York. Major pattern shifts will bring the best snow.
Bottom line: Northern Maine looks better than southern New England. Like NY/PA, this region's fate depends on whether we get those dramatic arctic intrusions. The potential is there for some absolute bangers, but patience may be required.
ONTARIO/QUEBEC
The Weather Network: This is their wheelhouse, and they're calling for near to colder than normal temps with the main storm track running right through the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley. That's exactly where you want it! They do mention that warm Pacific water as a wild card that could either supercharge storms or disrupt the pattern.
Severe Weather Europe: Extends their colder and snowier forecast into southern Ontario and Quebec.
Powderchasers: High confidence for an active pattern through the Great Lakes and into Quebec.
Bottom line: Southern Ontario and Quebec are sitting in the sweet spot of the forecasted storm track. This looks like it could be a classic Canadian winter for these traditional riding areas!
THE VERDICT
So what's the story for 25-26?
The Midwest and Great Lakes have the highest confidence for a great winter. Almost every source agrees we'll see an active pattern with plenty of snow. The real kicker could be the lake-effect setup - if we get those early arctic shots while the lakes are still warm and open, we could see some absolutely epic dumps to start the season, particularly in the UP, Wisconsin, and Tug Hill.
The Northern Plains are also looking solid with good agreement among forecasters for colder and more active than average.
Ontario and Quebec should see a classic winter with a reliable storm track through the heart of prime riding country.
The Northeast is the question mark. There's real disagreement here - NOAA leans warmer while private forecasters lean colder and snowier. The key will be whether the Polar Vortex disrupts. If it does, we could see some absolutely legendary nor'easters that define the season. If not, it'll be a more average winter with periodic mild breaks. Either way, keep your gear ready because when the pattern flips, it could flip big.
One thing to watch as winter progresses: La Niña is forecast to weaken by late winter, which could change the pattern for February and March. Stay flexible with your plans!
Overall, this is shaping up to be a dynamic winter with a lot of potential. The atmospheric ingredients are in place for some memorable riding across the snowbelt. Here's hoping Mother Nature delivers!
See you on the trails!
Get Your Sled Ready for the Season
Now that you know what kind of winter to expect, it's time to make sure your sled is ready to handle it! Whether you're facing icy trails in the Northeast or deep powder in the Midwest, having the right snowmobile studs makes all the difference.
At Fast Trac, we've been helping riders get maximum traction and control for years. Our stud kits are designed for easy installation and proven performance in all conditions - from hard-pack trails to fresh powder. Don't let poor traction keep you off the trails this season!
Shop Fast-Trac Snowmobile Studs and ride with confidence all winter long.
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