The days are getting colder and shorter, and we’ve even seen teaser snow in many of the riding areas! Do you know what that means? It’s time for the 22-23 winter outlook!
Every year we look at 4-5 different sources and summarize what they predict for a potential region. Looking back, some sources over the years have been wildly inaccurate and vague. For this year we dropped the farmer’s almanac. We looked at and said no more. It’s predictions are wildly broad and said to be interpreted many different ways which is not the point of this article.
For 22-23 we’ve selected the following sources, John Dee, Accuweather, NOAA and US Weather Action.
As a quick note, this is just for fun, we’ve had great and poor snow seasons when the seasonal outlook predicted the opposite. No decisions of trips and snowmobile purchases should be made based on the outlook.
John request his images not be shared, view his outlook here.
Accuweather: Forecast shows an average amount of snow in the 75-124 for South Dakota and Eastern 2/3rds of North Dakota. The western 1/3rd of North Dakota is in the 50-74% of average snowfall. Temperature wise they see an above average December and then turning colder for the rest of winter.
John Dee: North and South Dakota are in the same prediction of a dry, warmer December then flipping to below average temps and above average snow for Late December through March. Fingers crossed!
NOAA: The National Weather Service has the Dakotas for leaning below average temperatures in December, January and February, with North Dakota having higher odds than South. The precipitation odds for December, January, February is equal chance with above or below average with a northwest section of North Dakota in the leaning above average.
US Weather Action: Predictions are for a below average temps for the Dakotas with the northern half of North Dakota being 2-4 extra degrees below normal. Snowfall is predicted to be above average for both states as well.
Accuweather: Extended outlook shows the northeast quadrant of the state is above average snowfall of 125-149% of normal. Like North Dakota, warmer temps to start in December and flipping to ideal winter predictions.
John Dee: For the souther 2/3rds a warmer November and December with less than average snow with winter turning on before the start of the new year and revert to below average temperatures and above average snowfalls. For the northern 3rd, below average temps and above average snowfall is the prediction with potential for heavy spring snow.
NOAA: The National Weather Service has the northern 2/3rds of the state in the 40-50% chance of below average temps and the bottom 1/3rd in the 33-40% range. For precipitation, the whole state is in the equal chance for below or above average snow.
US Weather Action: The whole state is set to be below normal with it being more extreme in the northern half of the state. Above average snowfall is predicted for the whole state!
Accuweather: For snowfall Accuweather has the northern half of Wisconsin in the 125-149% of normal range. The Southern half through northern Illinois is in the average 75-124% range. Milder temperatures for December are also predicted.
John Dee: For the majority of Wisconsin north of Madison, the prediction is mild through most of December with winter turning on at the end of the month and switching to below average temperatures and above average snow fall. He has Northern Illinois and the Southern portion of Wisconsin in below average temperatures and above average snow fall.
NOAA: For December, January and February, the outlook is leaning towards below average temps for all of Wisconsin and a northwest sliver of Illinois. The precipitation outlook has the majority of the Wisconsin and almost all of Illinois in leans toward above average. All areas within Lake Michigan shows a higher lean towards above average!
US Weather action: Is calling for below average temperatures for the majority of the Wisconsin. Towards Lake Michigan and all of IL is predicted to be average. Snowfall is predicted to be above average for all of Wisconsin with a souther section in average along with all of Illinois.
UPPER PENINSULA MI
Accuweather: Snow outlook is set to be 125-149% of average for all of the UP! Temperatures for December are predicted to be a bit milder.
John Dee: John Dee is predicting below average temps and above average snowfall with potential for heavy spring snowfalls. Looking good!
NOAA: The national weather service has the UP in leans below average with and the whole portion of the state in above average precipitation with a higher likelihood east of Marquette.
US Weather Action: Predictions are for a below average temp in the Western half of the UP and average temps in the eastern portion. The whole territory is predicted for above average snowfall.
Accuweather: The prediction from Accuweather is pretty conservative for the oven mitt. Snowfall is in the average range of 75-124% and a milder December to start the season.
John Dee: John’s prediction is a tale of two stories for lower MI. The western half is predicted with a mild start ramping up to above average snowfalls and below average temperatures. He sees the Eastern half of the state having above average temps with average to above average snowfall.
NOAA: National Weather Service has the state in equal chance for above or below average temperatures and higher odds of above average precipitation for the whole lower peninsula.
US Weather Action: Their prediction shows average temperatures for the season with above average snowfall for the northern half.
NEW YORK/PENNSYLVANIA (LOWER NE)
Accuweather: Prediction from Accuweather is calling for 50-74% of average snowfall for both New York and Pennsylvania. Temperatures are predicted to be more mild to start the winter in December.
John Dee: Our buddy John’s prediction for the region calls for above average temps with average to above average snowfall for most of New York and northern Pennsylvania. The southwestern quadrant is in below average temps and above average snow with the rest of the state as average.
NOAA: Predictions out of NOAA for December, January and February are calling equal chance of below average or above average temps for the majority of the two states. The far east section of PA and southeast section of NY leans above average. Perception is leans above average for the majority of the two states with the lake effect belts with higher odds. The far east portions are in equal chances.
US Weather Action: Predictions are for average temps in PA and Western NY. Eastern NY is predicted to be in 1-2 degrees above average. Snowfall for the majority of the region is predicted to be average with non riding areas in below average range.
VERMONT/NEW HAMPSHIRE/MAINE (UPPER NE)
Accuweather: For Vermont and New Hampshire, Accuweather is predicting 75-124% of average for snowfall. Maine is in the 125-149% of average snowfall. The whole region looks to have a warm start to the season though.
John Dee: John’s prediction for the northeast is Vermont and New Hampshire is above average temps with average to above average snow. Maine looks better with the vast majority of the state with the prediction of below average temps and above average snow.
NOAA: The seasonal prediction from NOAA has the Southern portion of the three states leaning towards above average temps. Northern half’s have an equal chance for above or below average temperatures. Precipitation leans to above on the northern portions of the three states with the rest in the equal equal chance for above or below average snowfall.
US Weather Action: This outlook has all of the region in 1-2 degrees above average. For snowfall, the region falls in the average prediction.