Winter Outlook 21-22
Posted by FAST TRAC on
The big question before snowmobile season starts is how will the snow be this winter? It all started with Farmer’s Almanac making the seasonal forecasts but as tools have gotten better, much larger operations and professionals try their hand at the seasonal prediction. These are more for fun than anything but we can hope as technology gets better, the predictions get better as well.
As a whole it looks like a great winter for snowmobilers in the Midwest and Northeast. Deviation between all the different forecasts is not large. One thing we have going for us this winter is the Great Lakes are much warmer than normal and can supercharge the lake effect in the snow belts!
You can view all the long term forecasts in detail at the links below:
John requests his graphic not to be shared and can be found at the link.
LET IT SNOW!!!
North/South Dakota
Accuweather: Snowfall predictions for the western Dakota’s is put in the 75-124% of normal range, the eastern half are in the 125-149% range! Periods of serious cold weather is predicted!
SWC Forecast Center: SWC sees a different picture with the Dakotas. The western 3/4” of North Dakota seeing above average with the rest of the state and South Dakota seeing normal snowfall.
John Dee: Our pal John Dee is painting a good picture for North Dakota with above average snowfall and below average temps. The northern part of South Dakota makes it in to that prediction as well with the rest calling for average snowfall and temps.
NOAA: The national weather service is neutral on the region with their seasonal maps saying equal chance for above/below average in both temperature and precipitation for both North and South Dakota.
Farmer’s Almanac: The Farmer’s Almanac prediction is brand and not to the point. Our best interpretation is cold and snowy weather is in store, what a bold prediction!
Minnesota
Accuweather: Things are looking positive with the whole state in the 125-149% of normal snowfall and below average temperatures. The northwest section of the state is predicted at a 3 degrees lower than normal average while the rest sits in the 2-3 degrees below average range.
SWC Forecast Center: SWC is predicting Minnesota sees a cold and frigid winter with normal snowfall for most of the state. They are showing a normal snowfall for most of the state with a southern portion ridding the east boarder in the above average range.
John Dee: John has the above average snow and below average temps continuing from North Dakota for the northern 3/4 of the state! Average snow and temps for the southern 1/4.
NOAA: The maps are showing equal chance for above or below average temperatures and leaning to above average precipitation during January, February and March for most of the state. The northwest corner lies in the equal chance for precipitation.
Farmer’s Almanac: Like the Dakota’s, broad prediction for cold and snow is in place.
Wisconsin/Northern IL
Accuweather: A good winter is predicted for snow lovers by Accuweather! Wisconsin down to Central Illinois is in the 124-149% of normal snowfall range. All of Wisconsin and a northern portion of Illinois sit in the 2-3 degrees below normal range.
SWC Forecast Center: SWC is predicting a well above average snowfall from central IL to Mid WI. Northern Wiscoinsin is an above average snowfall range. Cold and rigid temps are predicted for the whole region!
John Dee: John’s prediction covers 3 ranges for this region. For the northern half of WI, below average temps and above average snow is predicted. For the mid section of WI, average snow and temps. Southern WI and Northern IL are predicted to have below average snowfall and above average temps.
NOAA: Central IL to Mid WI is leaning to have above average temperatures with the northern portion of WI having equal chance for below and above average temperatures. Precipitation is predicted to be above average for the region.
Farmer’s Almanac: Icy and Flaky is predicted for the region, really in-depth stuff.
Upper Peninsula MI
Accuweather: Things look good according to Accuweather with 125-149% of predicted average snowfall. Temps also are in the 2-3 degrees below normal range!
SWC Forecast Center: SWC has things looking good as well with the whole UP in Frigid temps. Their snowfall estimate has the western UP in above average range and the eastern UP in well above average!
John Dee: For John’s home stomping grounds he is predicting above average snowfall and below average temps. A winning combination for all snowmobilers! He also mentions Lake Superior having signifgantlly above normal water temps that can lead to earlier lake effect snow that lasts longer into the winter!
NOAA: The season outlook map has the eastern UP in leaning to above average temps with the western half in the equal chance range. The precipitation map has the eastern UP in the high chance of above average precipitation and the western in leaning towards above average.
Farmer’s Almanac: Their prediction says Icy and Flaky, whatever that amounts to…
Lower MI
Accuweather: Lower Michigan has a similar but slightly warmer outlook to Upper Michigan. Temps are forecasted to be 1-2 degrees below normal and snowfall in the 125-149% of average range.
SWC Forecast Center: SWC has all of Lower Michigan in the well above average snowfall range with temperatures being cold and frigid.
John Dee: John has a pretty tame prediction of average snowfall and temperatures for the oven mitt.
NOAA: The forecast maps for Lower Michigan show temps leaning towards above average and precipitation to above average for the whole state.
Farmer’s Almanac: Like Upper Michigan, they predict icy and flaky. How bold of them!
New York/Pennsylvania (Lower NE)
Accuweather: Accuweather has all of New York and NW Pennsylvania in the 125-149% of average snowfall range. The rest of PA is in the 75-124% range. Temps are predicted to be average. Their ski conditions map has most of the region in the excellent range, hopefully that translates to the trails!
SWC Forecast Center: SWC is predicting chilly temps for the upper half of PA and near normal for the southern half. New York is mostly in the chilly range with sections by Lake Huron rated colder.
The majority of PA is rated for above average snowfall with a small pocket by Lake Erie as well above. New York is mostly rated as above average with areas by the lakes as well above.
John Dee: John Dee has the region rated for average temps and snowfall. He mentions the eastern portion of the section that includes PA and NY may fare better.
NOAA: The forecast maps have both PA and NY leaning towards above average temps. The majority of the two states are forecasted for equal chance for below or above average snowfall with the west portions towards the lake leaning towards above average precipitation.
Farmer’s Almanac: Their prediction is a little more detailed for the Northeast. Chilly winter with a stormy January and calm February.
Vermont/New Hampshire/Maine (Upper NE)
Accuweather: Things look favorable for the Upper Northeast with all of the states in the 125-149% of average snowfall. Temps are forecasted to be average with the exception of northern Maine being 1-2 degrees below normal. Their ski map has the whole range in excellent which may translate to the trails!
SWC Forecast Center: SWC has Vermont and Northern New Hampshire above average with the rest of the region in the normal snowfall range.
John Dee: Just like the Lower Northeast States, prediction is average snowfall and temps but gets better the further east you go.
NOAA: The forecast maps have all the states in leaning towards above average temps. The earlier winter forecast has the northern portion for all the states leaning to above average precipitation but the whole region slides to equal chance for below or above in the later map.
Farmer’s Almanac: Same general prediction as NY and PA, chilly winter with a stormy January and calm February.
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